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Tropical Cyclone Eloise was the strongest tropical cyclone to impact the country of Mozambique since Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 and the second of three consecutive tropical cyclones to impact Mozambique in the 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. The seventh tropical depression, fifth named storm and the second tropical cyclone of the season, Eloise's origins can be traced to a disturbance over the central portion of the South-West Indian Ocean basin which developed into a tropical depression on 16 January, and strengthened into a tropical storm on 17 January, though the storm had limited strength and organization. The next day, the storm entered a more favorable environment, and it soon intensified to a severe tropical storm on 18 January. Late on 19 January, Eloise made landfall in northern Madagascar as a moderate tropical storm, bringing with it heavy rainfall and flooding. The storm traversed Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel in the early hours of 21 January. After moving southwestward across the Mozambique Channel for an additional 2 days, Eloise strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent cyclone, due to low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. Early on 23 January, Eloise peaked as a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale as the center of the storm began to move ashore in Mozambique. Shortly afterward, Eloise made landfall just north of Beira, Mozambique, before rapidly weakening. Subsequently, Eloise weakened into a remnant low over land on 25 January, dissipating soon afterward.
Preparations for the advancing storm took place in Madagascar before Eloise's landfall and in multiple other African countries. For Madagascar, widespread warnings and alerts were issued as the storm approached northern Madagascar. For Mozambique, high alerts were put in place for central portions of the country. Humanitarian responders prepared for response after the storms passing. Beira's port also closed for about 40 hours, and limited supplies of emergency non-food items were given. Many families were sheltered in tents at accommodation centers, and received kits for food, hygiene, and COVID-19 protection. Officials in Zimbabwe warned of ravine and , which may cause infrastructure damage. Several northern provinces of South Africa were expected to experience heavy rains, which prompted severe risk warnings for them. Disaster management teams were placed on high alert ahead of the storm.
Extreme flooding occurred throughout central Mozambique, with many areas being flooded due to continuous heavy rains weeks prior to Eloise's landfall. More than 100,000 people have been displaced and dams are at a tipping point. Infrastructure has taken a heavy hit. Approximately 100,000 people were evacuated by 23 January, although the numbers were expected to grow to 400,000. Flooding and damage have been less than feared. Weak shelters set up for the cyclone were either damaged or destroyed. Beira was completely flooded, and the impacts were comparable to those of Cyclone Idai, though they were far less severe. Farmland was damaged as well. Teams were sent out to assess the damage and repair it. There have been 27 confirmed deaths, with one in Madagascar, 11 in Mozambique, three in Zimbabwe, 10 in South Africa, and two in Eswatini. Eleven additional people are currently missing. Current damage from the storm is estimated to be $90 million (2021 USD) in Southern Africa.
On 20 January, Eloise emerged into the Mozambique Channel, where Eloise began to slowly reintensify, with warm waters, a moist environment, little shear, but weak upper-level divergence contributing to the storm's slow strengthening trend. However, some upper-level convergence hindered convection from developing quickly, though all other factors were relatively favorable. Soon afterward, the upper-level convergence began to decrease, allowing the system to begin rapidly strengthening. On 21 January, Eloise's outflow became robust, though its strength was limited, due to land interaction in the northern semicircle of the storm, having the strongest winds in the southeast quadrant and sustaining much weaker winds elsewhere. Despite sustained land interaction, Eloise strengthened, with improving poleward outflow and tightly wrapped banding features wrapping into a small eye.
On 22 January, Eloise significantly improved in organization as it moved southwestward across the Mozambique Channel. Later that day, Eloise strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHWS), as it neared the coast of Mozambique, given the favorable conditions in the region. Early on 23 January, Eloise strengthened further and peaked as a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone, with 10-minute sustained winds of , 1-minute sustained winds of , and a minimum central pressure of , as the storm's eyewall began moving ashore. Soon afterward, Eloise made landfall just north of Beira, Mozambique, at the same intensity. Following landfall, Eloise rapidly deteriorated, with the storm weakening back into a moderate tropical storm within 12 hours and the eye completely disappearing. As the storm moved further inland, Eloise weakened rapidly, due to interaction with the rugged terrain and dry air. Later that day, Eloise weakened into a tropical depression as it tracked further inland. On 25 January, Eloise degenerated into a remnant low, and the MFR issued their final advisory on the system, with the storm dissipating soon afterward.
Alert nines were issued for Limpopo and Mpumalanga. Basikopo Makamu, Limpopo's Cooperative Governance MEC, said the SANDF were on standby to help rescue people who may be cut off or trapped due to Eloise. The Gauteng emergency response team is on alert. They have activated contingency plans, to assist Gauteng and other surrounding provinces. SAWS has issued red alerts for disruptive rains over Lowveld areas of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces as well as the eastern Highveld areas. These will persist until 25 January. The weather service warned that rainfall may add to saturated grounds and worsen potential flooding, mudslides, and rockfalls. These may disrupt essential services, like food, water, sanitation, electricity, and communication. On 27 January, SAWS issued warnings for disruptive landfall from 26 January to 29 January. This included a yellow warning for western North-West province and extreme north-eastern portions of Northern Cape. These spread to western and central Free State.
Both the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services in Malawi and Mozambique noted that Malawi would be unlikely to be directly impacted by Eloise, but would experience some rainfall. Furthermore, officials issued warnings for heavy downpours and strong winds. In Botswana, the government's Meteorological Services issued a warning for heavy rains, strong winds, and localized flooding on 24 January. On 22 January, the service informed that the remnants of Eloise were expected to cause heavy rainfall, strong winds, and lightning. They advised the population to take caution.
Roughly 190 homes were either damaged or destroyed by the storm. Eloise exited Madagascar on 21 January, leaving one person dead in the country.
IOM Mozambique also reported that due to heavy rainfall and discharge of water from the Chicamba dam and the Manuzi Reservoir, 19,000 people were affected in that area. Cyclones cause major flooding, which can drown animals and destroy their natural environments. When smaller animals and food supplies disappear or get killed, it affects larger animals because they can no longer find enough food.
At least eleven people died in the country. Since beginning of heavy rains on 15 January, 21,500 people were affected and over 3,900 acres of farmland was damaged or destroyed. According to preliminary satellite analysis by UNOSAT surveying the Sofala and Manica provinces, about 2,200 km2 of land appeared to be flooded, with Beira City, Buzi and Nhamatanda had the greatest number of people potentially exposed to flooding. Furthermore, the rainfall affected 100,000 in Beira resettlement sites, which had been impacted by Cyclone Idai a year ago and Tropical Storm Chalane only a couple weeks before. Temporary shelters such as tents and homes made from plastic sheeting were heavily destroyed by Eloise. Some of the worst-hit areas, such as the Buzi District, outside of Beira, were already submerged by days of heavy rains ahead of the cyclone's landfall, with floodwaters consuming fields and flowing through village streets. Large trees were uprooted and the entirety of Beira was covered by water by 23 January, while communication was eventually cut off. Residents compared the impacts of the cyclone largely to that of Idai in 2019. Prior to landfall, 4,000 households were affected by floods in Buzi, with another 266 in Nhamatanda, and 326 in Beira. The provinces of Inhambane, Manica, Niassa, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia had already received between of rain since 9 January. This was worsened after Eloise made landfall. Dams were brought to a tipping point, which raised concerns that they may worsen the flooding even more for the affected areas. Advertising hoardings were blown over due to wind, and rivers burst through their banks in the region. The locals also expressed fear of losing crops, as floodwaters either damaged or destroyed farmland.
More than 5,000 homes in total were damaged across Buzi, Dondo, Nhamatanda, and Beira City, according to the government's preliminary data. Specifically, 1,069 were destroyed, 3,343 were damaged, and over 1,500 were flooded. Dozens of classrooms were damaged or destroyed, and at least 26 health centers were damaged. At least 177,000 hectares of crops have been flooded, such as maize, rice, cassava, and others (these numbers may rise after more data is collected). Roads were rendered impassable in parts of the Sofala, Zambezi, Inhumane, and Manica Provinces. The amount of those affected in the country rose to 163,283 on 25 January, including 6,859 displaced. Assessments indicated that Sofala Province was the hardest hit, especially in the Buzi, Dondo, and Nhamatanda districts, as well as Beira City.
Due to the psychological effects of Idai's impact still persisting, mental support for the people affected was critical. The storm displaced at least 8,000 individuals across the country. Some humanitarian facilities were damaged. Farm tools and seeds were destroyed. On 27 January, an estimated 74 health centers and 322 classrooms were damaged or destroyed. On 28 January, the number of houses affected rose to a total of 20,558. 6,297 were destroyed, 11,254 were damaged, and 3,007 were flooded. The number climbed to 29,310 houses, with 17,738 destroyed, 8,565 damaged, and 3,007 flooded. The number kept rising for classrooms and health centers; with 579 and 86 in need of repairs respectively.
A five-year-old child in the eastern Mpumalunga Province was killed after he was swept away by floodwaters, as well as a fourteen-year-old boy who drowned in KwaZulu-Natal. Bridges and vehicles were submerged in affected areas as well; the Vhembe District being the worst affected. The province received 150mm of rain in less than 16 hours. After a two-day operation, Rescue SA uncovered the body of a 35-year-old man who had drowned in the Blyde River. A mother and baby were swept away while crossing a flooded river in Elukwatini, and a one year old drowned. Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng and Northern Cape all experienced higher rainfall than in 2020, according to a report released by AfriWX. Steven Vermaak, chairman of the Transvaal Land Union of water affairs, said that the Nyl river, in Limpopo, ran for the first time in 15 years. On 12 February, in a public government gazette, a national state of disaster was declared as damage had been more serious than previously thought. At least 10 people in South Africa were killed by devastating floods brought by Eloise, while another 7 people were reported to be missing.
Over 400 households had been damaged or destroyed in the Masvingo province. The IOM reported that dams in Gutu District had reached full capacity and there was a risk of flooding. As of 28 January, 349 houses have been reported to be either damaged or destroyed. In Chipinge, 190 households were affected across 7 wards.
Nine Accommodation centres activated in Dondo and Muasa districts were deactivated by INGD. Food, tents, potable water, hygiene kits, and many other items were in critical need as the storm passed. As many as 10 people were living inside of some emergency tents at one time. Over 8,700 people were living in 16 temporary shelters in the port of Beira, due to Eloise's damages. The United Kingdoms foreign office said on 26 January that they would donate £1 million ($1.37 million) to help aid Mozambique's recovery. They also sent out a team of relief workers to assess damage and humanitarian needs. The number of those affected were at 248,481 with 16,693 displaced, according to data released by the INGD, along with a total of 17,000 houses. Flooding in the lower Limpopo river basin in the country was expected to peak around 26 or 27 January, according to the FCDO. IOM provided soap and limited amounts of cloth face masks to the most vulnerable. They also attempted to give out information regarding to social distancing, but circumstances at the time proved it to be difficult. Prime Minister Carlos Carlos Agostinho do Rosário visited the Sofala province on 25 January, and called on local residing in areas at risk of even more flooding to evacuate to safer grounds. More than 90,000 children were affected. Psychosocial support were also of high importance. UNICEF handed out prepositioned basic household and hygiene items, water purification products, and tarpaulin sheets for up to 20,000 people.
On 29 January, the international aid organization Food for Hungry (FN) announced details of its response in Mozambique. It covered the districts Nhamatanda, Beira, and Dondo in the province of Sofala, and planned to serve 2,200 households immediately. They distributed much needed supplies for survivors, staff, and volunteers. FH's Mozambique Country Director, Judy Atoni, said they will be working with peer organizations to develop and implement long term humanitarian aid. According to more preliminary data released by INGD on 28 January, the number of people affected still continued to rise as teams continued to survey damage, with the number standing at 314,369; a significant increase was reported in Buzi District. At least 20,012 people were still seeking shelter in 31 temporary accommodation shelters at the time (30 in Sofala, 1 in Inhambane). This was a slight decrease from 27 January, where 32 centers held 20,167 people.
GBV partners (UNFPA, Plan Int'l, IsraAid) distributed 782 dignity kits to evacuated and/or displaced women. A referral mechanism was put in place for urgent protection. The flooding in and around Buzi was comparable to an open sea. Some people tried building shelter after Idai in 2019 and have had their attempts damaged or destroyed. Oxfam called for international support immediately on 2 February, saying that any delay of any size could have disastrous consequences. At the time, they needed $3 million to provide clean water, sanitation, and hygiene support to 52,600 people in affected areas. They estimated over 260,000 people were in critical need of humanitarian aid. Protection clusters have made sure that local leaders have ensured the presence of basic needs; such as toilets and disability and elderly support. According to a report released on 3 February, preliminary satellite data found that approximately 1400 km2 of land appeared to be flooded. About 80,000 people were exposed and/or living near flooded areas during 14–31 January. At least 10,00 buildings were located within or were close to flooded areas. Citizens claimed the crisis in Cabo Delgado Province, which began in 2017 and killed more than 2,000 Mozambicans, has been exacerbated due to flooding brought by the cyclone. The safety of women and young girls was at further risk of being damaged.
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